Issue No. 9 | April 16, 2026

PHEW. TAX DAY IS BEHIND US.

INVENTORY JUST DROPPED AGAIN — AND IT’S CHANGING EVERYTHING

Here’s what’s actually happening on the ground right now:

• Inventory in parts of Oakland and Berkeley is down ~30% year-over-year

• Buyer demand has not slowed at the same pace

• Overbids in March pushed ~19% on average in competitive pockets

That combination is doing one thing:

Compressing opportunity.

Fewer homes → more attention per listing → faster decision cycles

This is why it feels calmer… until you’re actually in it.

A QUICK NOTE ON GLENVIEW

You might see stats showing Glenview up significantly year over year, even as high as 50%+ in some reports. That doesn’t mean every home suddenly jumped in value.

It’s a reflection of what’s actually selling right now:

• More fully renovated homes

• Fewer fixers

• And very limited inventory overall

When the mix shifts, the numbers move with it.

WHAT WE’RE SEEING (REAL TIME, NOT HEADLINES)

Across the past couple of weeks, a few patterns have been showing up consistently:

• The first week on market is carrying more weight again

• Homes priced to create momentum are seeing stronger-than-expected traffic early

• Properties that show well are still moving quickly—even when buyers initially question price

• And hesitation is getting punished. Buyers are losing out simply by waiting a day or two too long

That’s the pattern right now.

Not chaos.

Not frenzy.

Precision + speed.

THE OVERBID STORY IS BACK (BUT DIFFERENT THIS TIME)

Yes, overbidding is up again. But it’s not happening everywhere.

It’s happening here:

• Walkable Berkeley pockets

• Albany school-driven demand zones

• Specific Oakland neighborhoods with strong identity and housing stock

And it’s happening when:

• The home is dialed in

• Pricing invites competition (not tests it)

• The first weekend creates momentum

We’re seeing 2022-style competition on 2026-level selectivity.

THE SPLIT IS GETTING SHARPER

There’s a narrative that “the market is coming back.” That’s not wrong. It’s just incomplete. Because at the same time:

• Some Oakland listings are sitting longer

• Buyers are more price-sensitive when something feels off

• Homes without clear positioning are missing their window entirely

So what’s actually happening:

The best homes are accelerating.

Everything else is getting exposed

A QUICK NOTE ON RECORD SALES

You’ll start seeing more headlines about record-breaking sales. And the assumption is: “The market is surging again.”

But look closer.

These are typically:

• Highly prepared homes

• Specific, high-demand locations

• Limited competing inventory

Records aren’t being set because everything is rising. They’re being set because there’s nothing else like it available. Scarcity is doing a lot of the work.

WHAT THIS WEEK REALLY COMES DOWN TO

If you’re a buyer:

You’re not competing with everyone. You’re competing with the people who recognize the opportunity fastest.

If you’re a seller:

You don’t need a perfect market. You need a property that’s positioned to take advantage of the one we’re in.

Because right now:

• Inventory is tighter than it looks

• Demand is more targeted than it used to be

• And timing is compressing again as we move deeper into spring

FINAL TAKE

This isn’t just a competitive market. It’s a fast-reading market.

The people winning right now aren’t guessing.

They’re recognizing:

• When to move

• When to wait

• When something is mispriced relative to its demand

And that window? It’s getting shorter.

If something you’re seeing sparks a question, just reply to this email.