The Supply Problem Is Back

Robert Jones • April 1, 2026

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Issue No. 8 | April 1, 2026

THE ILLUSION OF A “BALANCED” MARKET

If you’re just skimming headlines, you might think things have softened.

Some price points are flatter year-over-year
Condos are still uneven
Days on market in some areas ticked up slightly

But zoom in, and a different picture shows up:

Inventory is still down ~18–21% year-over-year across the East Bay
Homes in Alameda County are still selling in ~13 days on average
Roughly 70%+ of homes are selling over asking

That’s not a soft market. That’s a constrained, competitive one.

What’s changed isn’t demand. It’s visibility.

The competition is quieter. More selective.

But when the right house shows up… it moves fast.

A QUICK BREAK FROM THE MARKET

Last week we hit pause for a minute.

No stats. No strategy sessions. No timelines to manage.

Just a room full of clients, friends, and familiar faces. Good food, music, and the kind of conversations we don’t always get to have during the pace of a transaction.

We hosted our Spring Client Appreciation Night here in Berkeley, and it turned out to be one of those evenings that reminds us why we do this in the first place.

Real estate is the work. But relationships are the reason.

Here’s a quick look at the night. Click below for the recap.

OAKLAND & BERKELEY — DEMAND IS OUTPACING SUPPLY AGAIN

Across the Inner East Bay (Oakland, Berkeley, Albany), the pattern is tightening:

Buyer demand is rising into spring
Supply is not keeping up
Overbidding is increasing again

Even where prices look “flat,” that’s often misleading.

What’s actually happening:

More lower-priced homes selling → pulls median down
But price per square foot is holding steady
Well-positioned homes are still outperforming

In Oakland specifically:

Only ~9.6% of listings are reducing price
Inventory has dropped while the rest of the country is loosening

Translation:

Sellers aren’t chasing buyers. Buyers are competing selectively.

And that selective competition is where things get aggressive.

LAMORINDA — QUIETLY COMPETITIVE, STILL PREMIUM

Lafayette, Orinda, Moraga… this is where the market gets even more precise.

Median prices hovering near or above $2M in key pockets
Strong demand tied to schools, lifestyle, and long-term hold buyers
Early multiple offers returning in the $1.5M–$2.5M range

This isn’t a frenzy market.

It’s a decision-driven market:

Buyers are intentional
Sellers who prep properly are rewarded quickly
Everything hinges on positioning

The gap between “well-prepared” and “everything else” is widening fast.

THE REAL DIVIDE RIGHT NOW

There aren’t two markets. There are two outcomes:

DIALED-IN HOMES

Thoughtful prep
Strategic pricing
Strong early activity
Multiple offers are still very real

EVERYTHING ELSE

Sitting longer
Price adjustments
Missed timing

This gap is defining 2026. Even in a “calmer” market, execution is everything.

WHAT THIS MEANS (THE PART PEOPLE MISS)

This is not a wait-and-see market.

It’s a prepare-and-position market.

Because right now:

Inventory is still constrained
Buyers are active (even at ~6–7% rates)
And spring is compressing timelines again

The risk isn’t jumping too early. The risk is showing up unprepared when the moment is already moving.

FINAL TAKE

This market doesn’t necessarily feel aggressive at first glance, but it is. Just not everywhere, not all at once, and not for everyone. The intensity shows up in specific pockets, at specific price points, and on the homes that are positioned correctly—exactly where it matters most.